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Late in the day, the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) ruled against banks with respect to the calculation of interest regarding a separate lawsuit that may require the banks to pay frozen deposits dating back to past economic

plans. There are several things to point out, in our view:

 

(1) the recent ruling -- albeit negative -- is only with

respect to the interest calculation and not related to whether the banks actually have to pay (there is no

timeframe for this ruling from the TSJ);

 

(2) the banks may still appeal this ruling;

 

(3) the actual amount due from banks is still unknown so there is still uncertainty; and

 

(4) public banks would be the most affected.

 

Overall, we still think it is unlikely that the final ruling will be something that could cripple the financial system.

Nonetheless, given that public banks are the most affected, this could ultimately be an additional fiscal cost the

government will absorb, thus increasing gross debt levels. The market impact was relatively mooted following the announcement, and in our view, the greatest impact if any on rates is a tightening in the front end, as the hit

the hit to the banks will likely impact lending growth and over economic growth. The additional debt burden for

the government, however, may cause long-end rates to widen.

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38 Portugues DEMONSTRAÇÕES FINANCEIRAS - DEZ/19 file 2020-06-18 2236
37 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - SET/19 file 2019-12-31 4374
36 Portugues Relatório Gestão de Riscos - 1º Sem2019 file 2019-09-28 5276
35 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - MAR/19 file 2019-07-13 6698
34 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - DEZ/18 file 2019-07-13 5234
33 Portugues Relatório Gestão Riscos - Set/18 file 2019-07-13 5123
32 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 1º SEM18 file 2019-03-21 8030
31 Portugues RELATÓRIO OUVIDORIA - 06/18 file 2019-03-21 5775
30 Portugues Relatório Gestão de Riscos e Capital- 2º Semestre2017 file 2018-06-14 28860
29 Portugues RELATÓRIO DE OUVIDORIA 2016 file 2018-03-17 11373
28 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 1º SEM2017 file 2017-10-31 29179
27 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 2º SEM16 file 2017-10-31 26900
26 Portugues Demonstrações Financeiras - 2016 file 2017-09-30 27451
25 Portugues POLITICA DE RESPONSABILIDADE SOCIO AMBIENTAL file 2017-03-08 20872
24 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 1º SEM16 file 2016-10-18 23054
23 Portugues Demonstrações Financeiras - 1 SEM/2016 file 2016-10-18 15004
22 Portugues RELATÓRIO DE OUVIDORIA 2015 file 2016-06-01 18954
21 Portugues Demonstrações Financeiras - 2015 file 2016-04-20 19497