logo

Deviations in Inflation Forecasts Start to Increase Again (source - Santander Economist)

 

The Focus survey released yesterday pointed to some changes in market expectations regarding certain indices for 2014 and 2015. The median of IPCA’s expectations rose to 6.43% from 6.39%, while the 12-month smoothed inflation forecast remained unchanged, at 5.88%. For full-year 2015, IPCA’s inflation forecast remains unchanged, at 6.00%. The IGP-DI median for 2014 dropped to 6.87% from 7.25%, and remains at 5.50% for 2015. Regarding the interest rate scenario, the market consensus for Selic still stands at 11.25% p.a. for 2014 and 12.25% p.a. for 2015. The GDP growth expectations for 2014 dropped to 1.62% from 1.69%; and for 2015, it rose to 2.00% from 1.90%. Exchange rate consensus expectations for 2014 kept last week’s level, at BRL2.45/US$; as for 2015, it slightly changed from BRL2.50/US$ to BRL2.51/US$.

May’s IGP-M second preview presented a deflation rate of 0.04%, below our forecast and market consensus expectations, both at +0.07% m/m. In the previous month, considering the same survey period, the IGP-M posted an increase of 0.83% in prices. We highlight IPA (Wholesale Price Index) figures, which posted deflation of 0.45%. The recent exchange rate appreciation should promote more deflation in the IGP-M in the next two months, in our view, but it will mean no revision in our IGP-M forecast of 6.8% for 2014.

List of Articles
번호 제목 날짜 조회 수sort
36 한국어 브라질우리은행 명칭 도용업체 주의 부탁드립니다. 2014-12-05 65889
35 한국어 (중요) 브라질 우리은행 명의도용 업체 주의 2015-02-20 28164
34 Portugues Relatório Gerenciamento de Riscos 2014 file 2015-04-24 26609
33 한국어 5월22일 주요뉴스 발췌 요약 2014-05-23 26312
32 한국어 Daily Economic Comments 2014-06-12 25561
31 Portugues 연말 브라질 우리은행 영업 시간(12월 24일/31일) - HORARIO DE ATENDIMENTO FINAL DE ANO 2015-12-24 23295
30 한국어 Economic Comments from Banks in Brasil 2014-07-02 23000
29 한국어 월드컵 개최일자 브라질우리은행 휴무일 통지 2014-06-12 22139
28 한국어 경제뉴스- Investors avoid taking positions waiting for the minutes of the Fed 2014-05-21 21603
27 한국어 LatAm Fixed Income & Economics Daily (5/20) 2014-05-21 21275
26 한국어 동결예금의 이자지급에 관한 법원결정 기사요약 2014-05-23 19801
25 Portugues ALERTA AO PÚBLICO ! 2015-02-20 19656
24 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 1º SEM2017 file 2017-10-31 19614
23 한국어 2014년 브라질 월드컵 기간 중 브라질우리은행 근무시간 변경안내 file 2014-05-29 19545
» 한국어 경제뉴스- Deviations in Inflation Forecasts Start to Increase Again 2014-05-21 18518
21 한국어 Economy News and Outlook(20140701) 2014-07-02 18262
20 Portugues ALERTA AO PÚBLICO 2014-12-06 17681
19 한국어 Economy News and Outlook on 24/06/2014_Bloomberg 2014-06-26 17550
18 Portugues Sistema de Informações de Crédito 2015-04-14 17357
17 한국어 Economy News and Outlook(2014.06.27)_Bloomberg 2014-07-01 17064