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Deviations in Inflation Forecasts Start to Increase Again (source - Santander Economist)

 

The Focus survey released yesterday pointed to some changes in market expectations regarding certain indices for 2014 and 2015. The median of IPCA’s expectations rose to 6.43% from 6.39%, while the 12-month smoothed inflation forecast remained unchanged, at 5.88%. For full-year 2015, IPCA’s inflation forecast remains unchanged, at 6.00%. The IGP-DI median for 2014 dropped to 6.87% from 7.25%, and remains at 5.50% for 2015. Regarding the interest rate scenario, the market consensus for Selic still stands at 11.25% p.a. for 2014 and 12.25% p.a. for 2015. The GDP growth expectations for 2014 dropped to 1.62% from 1.69%; and for 2015, it rose to 2.00% from 1.90%. Exchange rate consensus expectations for 2014 kept last week’s level, at BRL2.45/US$; as for 2015, it slightly changed from BRL2.50/US$ to BRL2.51/US$.

May’s IGP-M second preview presented a deflation rate of 0.04%, below our forecast and market consensus expectations, both at +0.07% m/m. In the previous month, considering the same survey period, the IGP-M posted an increase of 0.83% in prices. We highlight IPA (Wholesale Price Index) figures, which posted deflation of 0.45%. The recent exchange rate appreciation should promote more deflation in the IGP-M in the next two months, in our view, but it will mean no revision in our IGP-M forecast of 6.8% for 2014.

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