12 Jun, 2014

Daily Economic Comments

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Today’s Highlights




Global stocks are just treading water this Thursday (Stoxx Europe 600 index: +0.0%; S&P 500 futures: -0.0%) ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting (8:45 in Brasília). It’s expected that the ECB announce a number of monetary stimulus measures designed to reactivate credit while also keeping at bay the risk of deflation in the region. They may include a cut in the ECB’s key refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.15% or even 0.10%, and perhaps more importantly the application of a negative deposit rate, so that commercial banks would have to pay to park funds with the central bank overnight, in a bid to convince banks to lend the money out instead. Other possibilities include a new targeted long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) with a fixed rate, and bond purchases without sterilization.




Yesterday, stocks in general oscillated slightly up or down, as investors await main events of this week (like the ECB policy meeting—see below). In Brazil, the Ibovespa index fell 0.4% and closed at 51.8K points in a move led by Petrobras, which fell 1.8%, on market talks that domestic fuel prices adjustment is not in the government agenda for the coming months. Other papers saw small changes. The BRL closed broadly stable at 2.28 as data on negative capital flow offset a tax reduction for bond issues abroad for maturities longer than 6 months. The local yield curve also closed with small changes in the main vertices as participants await the release of the Copom minutes this morning (see more below).




In the U.S., initial jobless claims for the last week of May are due today (9:30 in Brasília). The forecast is 310,000, up from 300,000 in the previous week, but the underlying downtrend is set to continue despite the volatility inherent in high-frequency data such as these.




In Brazil, the Central Bank issues the minutes from last week’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The decision to leave the Selic unchanged on 11.0% p.a. was expected and will probably be repeated for several more months at least. On the other hand, the post-meeting statement drew attention despite its relative brevity. However obvious

it may be that the Selic is not usually kept on hold for a long time, the committee nevertheless used the expression “at this

moment” to characterise this transience. Details of the committee’s internal discussion in the minutes should provide a

clearer picture of its concerns and possibly signal next steps in monetary policy, particularly the timing of the first move in the next cycle, considered even more important.




Anfavea should release complete May statistics for the automotive industry. Inventories fell to the equivalent of 40 days of sales in the month thanks to feirões, large discount sales held directly by manufacturers, and extended financing terms. Expectations for demand remain pessimistic, however, because of high levels of household debt and the prospect of price hikes as tax breaks are phased out (IPI tax is set to return to 7% in July). We believe production will have fallen again in May, as inventory adjustment continues.

List of Articles
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31 한국어 Economic Comments from Banks in Brasil 2014-07-02 27052
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29 Portugues RELATÓRIO GESTÃO RISCOS - 1º SEM2017 file 2017-10-31 25591
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21 Portugues Relatório Gestão de Riscos e Capital- 2º Semestre2017 file 2018-06-14 21542
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