Caution prevailed in the markets at the beginning of the week as investors avoid increasing risk positions waiting for the

minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC , its acronym in English ) , to be released tomorrow

In the local market , the dollar and interest rate futures closed slowly decreasing, following the movement in the foreign market , day in low turnover .

The dollar closed down 0.18 % to R $ 2.2090 .

Investors follow cautious waiting for new signals from the Federal Reserve ( Fed , the U.S. central bank) on the process of normalization of monetary policy in the United States and the definition of the continuity of the intervention program by the Central Bank in the local market . "Investors are still on hold several data that will come out this week . Abroad and is new that will tinker with the rates ," says the manager of Treviso Exchange Brokerage, Reginald Gallardo , reminding that the agenda has still new election survey by Ibope .

Yesterday , the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco , John Williams , said that at some point next year the Fed is likely to take the first step in raising the interest rate in the U.S. , which is now close to zero . " We basically moving toward standardization ," said the head of the Fed , which this year is not entitled to vote in the FOMC .

Almost a year after the Fed to signal the first time that would continue the withdrawal of monetary stimulus , on May 22, 2013 , the consultancy Capital Economics points out that there has been no improvement in the fundamentals of emerging markets , especially countries classified in the group of the five fragile ( Brazil , India , Indonesia , Turkey and South Africa ) , whose currencies were devalued more than last year . With the exception of India , other countries continue with high current account deficit , which has contributed to the increased vulnerability of these economies . Whereas a group of 15 emerging currencies , only the Korean won and the New Zealand dollar managed to reset the accumulated losses and valuation since May 22, 2013 . Already accumulates the actual fall of 7.11% in the period .

Although the reduction in risk aversion , with the expectation that the Fed should not raise the basic interest rate so early, has benefited emerging currencies in recent months , the consultant sees countries like Venezuela , Thailand , Turkey , Chile and Indonesia as the most vulnerable to the normalization of monetary policy by the Fed

Although not present an improved fundamentals , Brazil is benefiting from the flow of short-term capital , since the actual remains attractive to the " carry trade " operations , seeking to gain interest arbitrage .

JP Morgan expects the dollar remains between R $ 2.20 and R $ 2.25 in the very short term, since the high return on carry trade - partly stimulated by the yield on U.S. Treasury ( Treasury ) ten years the home of 2.5 % - likely to continue obfuscating the issues related to the economy . The bank also believes that the Fed will continue to operate in the foreign exchange market by the end of this year .

The scenario of low- pressure high for the dollar and Treasuries rates still at low levels has allowed a slight correction rates of future interest rate contracts .

Yesterday , the rate of DI for January 2017 contract closed at 10.95 % against 10.96 % in the previous trading session . The rate of DI for January 2017 decreased to 12 %, compared to 12.05% on Friday .

In the interest rate market , investors follow with the majority stake at the end of the monetary tightening cycle at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee ( Monetary Policy Committee ) 27th and 28th of May. The perception that the current inflation is slowing and activity remains weak , added to the monetary authority in recent days communication, justifying that expectation .