12 Jun, 2014

Daily Economic Comments

WooriBank 조회 수 62703 추천 수 0 목록

Today’s Highlights




Global stocks are just treading water this Thursday (Stoxx Europe 600 index: +0.0%; S&P 500 futures: -0.0%) ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting (8:45 in Brasília). It’s expected that the ECB announce a number of monetary stimulus measures designed to reactivate credit while also keeping at bay the risk of deflation in the region. They may include a cut in the ECB’s key refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.15% or even 0.10%, and perhaps more importantly the application of a negative deposit rate, so that commercial banks would have to pay to park funds with the central bank overnight, in a bid to convince banks to lend the money out instead. Other possibilities include a new targeted long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) with a fixed rate, and bond purchases without sterilization.




Yesterday, stocks in general oscillated slightly up or down, as investors await main events of this week (like the ECB policy meeting—see below). In Brazil, the Ibovespa index fell 0.4% and closed at 51.8K points in a move led by Petrobras, which fell 1.8%, on market talks that domestic fuel prices adjustment is not in the government agenda for the coming months. Other papers saw small changes. The BRL closed broadly stable at 2.28 as data on negative capital flow offset a tax reduction for bond issues abroad for maturities longer than 6 months. The local yield curve also closed with small changes in the main vertices as participants await the release of the Copom minutes this morning (see more below).




In the U.S., initial jobless claims for the last week of May are due today (9:30 in Brasília). The forecast is 310,000, up from 300,000 in the previous week, but the underlying downtrend is set to continue despite the volatility inherent in high-frequency data such as these.




In Brazil, the Central Bank issues the minutes from last week’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The decision to leave the Selic unchanged on 11.0% p.a. was expected and will probably be repeated for several more months at least. On the other hand, the post-meeting statement drew attention despite its relative brevity. However obvious

it may be that the Selic is not usually kept on hold for a long time, the committee nevertheless used the expression “at this

moment” to characterise this transience. Details of the committee’s internal discussion in the minutes should provide a

clearer picture of its concerns and possibly signal next steps in monetary policy, particularly the timing of the first move in the next cycle, considered even more important.




Anfavea should release complete May statistics for the automotive industry. Inventories fell to the equivalent of 40 days of sales in the month thanks to feirões, large discount sales held directly by manufacturers, and extended financing terms. Expectations for demand remain pessimistic, however, because of high levels of household debt and the prospect of price hikes as tax breaks are phased out (IPI tax is set to return to 7% in July). We believe production will have fallen again in May, as inventory adjustment continues.

List of Articles
번호 제목 날짜sort 조회 수
44 한국어 경제뉴스- Investors avoid taking positions waiting for the minutes of the Fed 2014-05-21 111447
43 한국어 LatAm Fixed Income & Economics Daily (5/20) 2014-05-21 31927
42 한국어 경제뉴스- Deviations in Inflation Forecasts Start to Increase Again 2014-05-21 35219
41 한국어 5월22일 주요뉴스 발췌 요약 2014-05-23 67231
40 한국어 동결예금의 이자지급에 관한 법원결정 기사요약 2014-05-23 40976
39 한국어 2014년 브라질 월드컵 기간 중 브라질우리은행 근무시간 변경안내 file 2014-05-29 29370
» 한국어 Daily Economic Comments 2014-06-12 62703
37 한국어 월드컵 개최일자 브라질우리은행 휴무일 통지 2014-06-12 33717
36 한국어 Economy News and Outlook on 24/06/2014_Bloomberg 2014-06-26 26119
35 한국어 Economy News and Outlook(2014.06.27)_Bloomberg 2014-07-01 25323
34 한국어 Economic Comments from Banks in Brasil 2014-07-02 40949
33 한국어 Economy News and Outlook(20140701) 2014-07-02 29041
32 한국어 브라질우리은행 명칭 도용업체 주의 부탁드립니다. 2014-12-05 112658
31 Portugues ALERTA AO PÚBLICO 2014-12-06 40980
30 한국어 (중요) 브라질 우리은행 명의도용 업체 주의 2015-02-20 42070
29 Portugues ALERTA AO PÚBLICO ! 2015-02-20 55225
28 Portugues Sistema de Informações de Crédito 2015-04-14 36155
27 Portugues Relatório Gerenciamento de Riscos 2014 file 2015-04-24 40696
26 Portugues 연말 브라질 우리은행 영업 시간(12월 24일/31일) - HORARIO DE ATENDIMENTO FINAL DE ANO 2015-12-24 110471
25 Portugues Relatório Gerenciamento Riscos - 2015 file 2016-04-20 24147