02 Jul, 2014

Economic Comments from Banks in Brasil

WooriBank 조회 수 40955 추천 수 0 목록

European stocks post small gains today (Stoxx Europe 600 index: +0.5%) led by the mining sector—the

basic resources subindex adds 1.8%—after the official Chinese PMI manufacturing for June rose to 51.0

from 50.8 in May. U.S. stock futures show a positive opening as well. As far as FX markets are concerned,

the pound soared to near six-year high against the dollar after U.K. PMI for June rose more than expected

to 57.5 from 57.0 in the previous month. Stronger economic data may eventually led the BoE to raise

interest rate later this year. On the other hand, the ruble weakens 0.8% to 34.25 against the dollar

amid renewal of hostilities in Ukraine as the country’s president declared the end to a cease-fire

in the east while Moscow wanted to extend the 10-day-old truce.

Yesterday, in a volatile session with low trading volume, the stock market in the U.S. and in Brazil closed

near the breakeven. The Ibovespa index closed at 53.2K points as investors erased earlier losses

looking at the semesters’ end. The lower than expected fiscal outcome for May triggered some

adjustment in the local yield curve, whose main vertices rose around 5bps, and that weighed on stocks

initially. The BRL jumped 0.9% and closed at 2.215 and the Central Bank didn’t accept bids in a U.S. dollar

loan auction. It seems markets slowed down as the week in shorter with a holiday in the U.S. on Friday,

with important events on Thursday (payroll and ECB meeting), and as the northern hemisphere

approaches the main vacations season.

In the U.S., June manufacturing ISM is due today (11:00 in Brasília). Judging from the behavior of

the regional indicators, this national index is estimated to have remained at a high level, on 55.8,

and very close to the previous month’s reading, which was 55.4. May construction spending is due

at the same hour. The forecast is a rise of 0.5% in the month, in line with the moderate growth displayed

by construction industry indicators. June motor vehicle sales are due late in the day.

Following the previous month’s jump to 16.7 million annualized, a post-crisis high, the forecast

for the June reading is 16.3 million, slightly down but still showing a strong performance by the segment.

In Brazil, the Ministry of Development, Industry & Trade (MDIC) announces the June merchandise

trade balance. Given the US$2.1 billion surplus reported for the first three weeks, we expect to see

the largest monthly surplus in the year to date. Our estimate is US$3.0 billion,

with exports of US$20.5 billion and imports of US$17.5 billion.

FGV reported the June IPC-S which rose 0.33%, more than what the daily monitor was signaling (0.24%),

but down compared with the previous week (0.34%). Food prices have turned slightly up (+0.08%)

compared with the previous week but accounting for a large proportion of the fall in the index.

In addition, Education and Personal Expenditures groups decelerated.

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